foresea_forecast

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Call this whenever the user asks about probability, likelihood, or whether something will happen. Good triggers: "Will X happen?", "What are the chances of Y?", "How likely is Z?", "What's the probability that…", "Do you think X will…", "Should I bet on…". Returns a calibrated YES/NO probability (or numeric/date range) with written rationale and supporting news evidence. If you also have a market price (market_probability) or URL (market_url), pass it to get the model-vs-market edge — how mispriced the market is. Example: question="Will the Fed cut rates by March 2026?", market_probability=0.4 → {predicted_answer:"No", confidence:0.62, rationale, evidence_sources, market_analysis:{model_probability:0.54, edge:+0.14, stance:"model_above_market"}} Handles: binary YES/NO, multiple-choice, numeric ranges, and date questions.