ink.foresea/forecasting

Tools

• foresea_analyze_market

  Call this when the user mentions a specific prediction market by URL, slug, or ticker — or asks whether a particular market is over/underpriced. Good triggers: "Is this Polymarket fair?", "What's the edge on kalshi:XXXXX?", "Should I buy/sell this market?", user pastes a Polymarket or Kalshi URL. Fetches the live price, gathers evidence, forecasts, computes model-vs-market edge, and returns a recommendation. Use foresea_forecast instead when there is no specific live market — just a general probability question. Example: platform="polymarket", slug="fed-rate-cut-march-2026" → {model_probability, market_probability, edge, stance, recommendation, thesis}.

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• foresea_batch_quotes

  Call this when the user wants current price/volume for several markets at once -- a watchlist, a portfolio, "check on these 5 markets" -- instead of calling foresea_analyze_market once per market. Each ref is "platform:ident", e.g. "kalshi:KXFED-25JUN-H" or "polymarket:some-market-slug". Every quote carries fetched_at and age_seconds so you can judge freshness yourself -- both venues rate-limit hard, so don't assume a quote is live without checking age_seconds. One bad ref returns an error on that entry only; the rest of the batch still succeeds. Up to 50 refs per call. Example: refs=["kalshi:KXFED-25JUN-H", "polymarket:fed-cut-2026"] → {quotes: [{platform, ident, probability, volume, fetched_at, age_seconds, error}], count, truncated}.

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• foresea_check_run

  Call this after foresea_analyze_market timed out or errored with a message naming a client_run_key -- the research it started may still be running server-side. Returns {"status": "running", ...} if it's not done yet (call again in a bit), or the full report once it is. Do not call this speculatively; only use the client_run_key a prior foresea_analyze_market call actually gave you. Example: client_run_key="a1b2c3..." → {status:"running", id:"agent_run_..."} or the full report once complete.

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• foresea_debate_market

  Conduct an adversarial multi-agent debate (Bull vs. Bear vs. Chief Risk Judge) to cross-examine evidence and isolate blind spots on a forecasting question.

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• foresea_edge_board

  Call this when the user wants the current top trading opportunities with explicit trade directions and historical backing. Good triggers: "What are the best bets right now?", "Show me the edge board", "Which model is winning the paper-trading competition?", "What's the strongest edge today?", "Are these edges statistically significant?". Returns open markets ranked by model-vs-market disagreement, each with Buy YES/NO direction, implied odds, whether the edge is historically significant, and a multi-model comparison.

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• foresea_exchange_status

  Call this to check Kalshi exchange operational status (trading active flag) and operational hours/schedule.

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• foresea_feed_latest

  Fetch the real-time unified Foresea Alpha & Agent Feed, combining live prediction market edge signals, autonomous agent trades & theses, and leaderboard standings.

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• foresea_forecast

  Call this whenever the user asks about probability, likelihood, or whether something will happen. Good triggers: "Will X happen?", "What are the chances of Y?", "How likely is Z?", "What's the probability that…", "Do you think X will…", "Should I bet on…". Returns a calibrated YES/NO probability (or numeric/date range) with written rationale and supporting news evidence. If you also have a market price (market_probability) or URL (market_url), pass it to get the model-vs-market edge — how mispriced the market is. Example: question="Will the Fed cut rates by March 2026?", market_probability=0.4 → {predicted_answer:"No", confidence:0.62, rationale, evidence_sources, market_analysis:{model_probability:0.54, edge:+0.14, stance:"model_above_market"}} Handles: binary YES/NO, multiple-choice, numeric ranges, and date questions.

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• foresea_live_data

  Call this to fetch real-time sports game statistics, play-by-play data, and live event feeds from Kalshi.

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• foresea_market_leaderboard

  Call this to fetch the top profitable prediction market trader leaderboard and rankings from Polymarket.

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• foresea_market_tags

  Call this to list active categories, tags, and classification taxonomy across Polymarket prediction markets.

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• foresea_optimize_portfolio

  Calculate optimal mathematical Fractional Kelly capital allocations and position sizes across live Grade A/B prediction market opportunities.

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• foresea_orderbook

  Call this to fetch the live bids and asks orderbook depth for a Kalshi market ticker (e.g. 'KXFED-25JUN-H') or Polymarket YES-token ID.

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• foresea_polymarket_meta

  Call this to fetch Polymarket metadata: event series listings, community discussion comments for a market, or sports league metadata (target: 'series', 'comments', 'sports').

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• foresea_price_history

  Call this to retrieve historical price series or OHLC candlesticks for a market (e.g. Kalshi ticker or Polymarket token/slug).

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• foresea_recent_trades

  Call this to fetch recent public executed trades / trade tape (prices, sizes, timestamps) on Kalshi or Polymarket.

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• foresea_scan_markets

  Call this when the user wants to find mispriced or interesting markets, not evaluate a specific one. Good triggers: "What should I bet on?", "Find me trading opportunities", "Which markets are mispriced right now?", "What's Foresea's best edge today?", "Scan Polymarket for opportunities". Returns markets ranked by model-vs-market disagreement, each with model probability, market price, and edge. For a specific market, use foresea_analyze_market instead. Example: platform="kalshi", min_edge=0.1 → [{question, market_probability, model_probability, edge, market_url}].

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• foresea_track_record

  Call this when the user asks how reliable or accurate Foresea is, or wants to know whether to trust a forecast. Good triggers: "How good is Foresea?", "What's the track record?", "Has it been right before?", "Is it calibrated?", "What's the Brier score?". Returns accuracy, Brier score, calibration (ECE), and skill-vs-market broken down by time horizon.

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Tool count and median score across every tool in this server’s corpus — honest in a way a single cherry-picked tool’s badge wouldn’t be.

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