com.predictionmarketspicks/elections

Tools

• adp_market_gaps

  Find the 2026 fantasy players whose Average Draft Position swings most between platforms — consensus vs ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, Underdog, etc. A wide gap (e.g. "consensus RB18 but ESPN drafts him RB30") is a platform-specific value: grab him where he goes latest. Free without a key (a capped slice). One email unlocks a deeper list; Pro unlocks the full per-platform breakdown. Use for "ADP differences by platform", "where is a player cheapest", "ADP arbitrage", "who falls on ESPN vs Sleeper". Filter by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX).

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• base_rate_gap

  Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market".

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• bayes_update

  Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

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• best_available

  Given the current pick number and the players already drafted, return the best players still on the board (2026, any scoring format), each with projection, ADP, and a value flag, plus the biggest model value available. Free without a key (a capped slice). One email unlocks a deeper list; Pro unlocks the full list plus boom/bust week odds and the positional tier breaks across everyone still on the board. Prefer this mid-draft when the user asks "who is the best available", "who should I take next", "best player left". Input: pick_number, drafted (names already gone).

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• calculate_ev

  Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position". From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

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• combo_edge

  Grade a same-game combo (parlay-style multi-leg position) on a prediction market against its fair value. Given each leg price in cents and your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint win probability, returns the fair-value ODDS BAND to grade a quote against. Pass offeredOdds — the price your platform actually quotes for the combo (Kalshi combo RFQ or an SGP product) — to get the expected-value %, a negative-correlation-trap flag, and a 7-tier verdict (SMASH / PLAY / LEAN / RISK / NO_VALUE / PASS / RUN). Without offeredOdds it returns fair value + band only (no verdict) — never grade EV off the product of the leg prices, which no venue pays. Use for "is this combo worth it", "grade my parlay quote", "same-game combo value". From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

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• commodity_edge

  Get today's highest-conviction silver or bitcoin trade signal from the PMP edge model — the Kalshi weekly-silver (KXSILVERW) or twice-daily bitcoin (KXBTCD) strike with the largest model edge, as a trade ticket: entry side and price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge in percentage points, confidence tier, and quarter-Kelly sizing. Pro key required. Use for "silver edge today", "bitcoin trade signal", "is there a commodity edge". Pass tickers[] to check specific Kalshi markets — e.g. paste your Kalshi Pro screener watchlist (returns the signal only if it matches the strike PMP is modeling).

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• compare_players

  Compare 2–4 players side by side for a 2026 fantasy draft (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR) — projection, floor/ceiling, ADP, draft round, and value flag — and get a pick recommendation plus which one is the best market value. Free, no key. Use for "<A> or <B> in fantasy", "who should I draft, <A> or <B>", "compare <A> and <B>", "start/draft <A> vs <B>".

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• convert_probability

  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

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• draft_board

  The PredictionMarketsPicks 2026 fantasy football draft board (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR) — every player ranked, blending our projection model with consensus ADP, showing projected points, ADP, draft round, and a SLEEPER / BUST value flag. Filter by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX). Free without a key (a capped slice of the board, plus the model's strongest sleeper and bust calls from deeper in it). One email unlocks a much deeper board — nothing to install; Pro unlocks all of it plus boom/bust week odds per player and positional tier breaks. Use for "fantasy football rankings 2026", "who are the top RBs", "draft board", "best available by position".

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• edge_alerts

  Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentage points, and a Kalshi market link. A Pro key returns the feed in real time; without a key you get the same feed delayed 24 hours with the thesis stripped. Every subscriber receives the identical, impersonal feed at the same time — the signals are not tailored to any individual. Filters (feed, min_tier, since) SELECT which alerts you see; they never change the signal content. Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "weather trade signals", "latest mispricings". Impersonal market analysis for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trade responsibly.

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• explain_player

  Explain WHY the 2026 draft board ranks a player where it does, factor by factor: projection, floor/ceiling band, boom/bust week shape, and the three separate ranks a board row carries — our model's own positional rank, the market's ADP, and the published blend between them — plus the edge between model and market. Also states what the projection does NOT model (injuries, camp news, schedule). Free, no key. Use for "why do you have <player> there", "explain <player> ranking", "what's driving <player>'s projection", "why is <player> a sleeper/bust". For a plain outlook or a verdict rather than the reasoning, use player_outlook.

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• fed_rate_odds

  Live market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, from Kalshi. Returns the next meeting with days-until and its full strike breakdown, plus the whole remaining rate path and the current fed funds rate. Free, no key. Use for "will the Fed cut rates", "fed rate hike odds", "next FOMC meeting odds", "what is the market pricing for September".

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• fifteen_min_board

  Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series — crypto, metals, energy, FX — with window status, YES price, close time, target price, what it settles on and the up rate over the last 96 windows. Pass series ("eth", "KXBTC15M") or asset_class. Free, no key.

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• find_arbitrage

  Scan for cross-platform price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same sports contract (NBA, NHL, MLB, World Cup). Returns each game where the two venues disagree on the implied probability, the gap in percentage points, the WATCH/ARB signal, and which venue is cheaper. Free without a key: the single largest gap on the board, in full detail. One email returns the top 3; Pro returns the whole board. Use for "where is the arbitrage", "cross-platform price gaps", "Kalshi vs Polymarket mispricing". Every signal our engines publish is settled against the market that priced it and scored wins and losses in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

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• kelly_size

  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

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• ladder_arb

  Use for "is any CFB ladder mispriced" and "where can I make a market on Kalshi". Kalshi college football and NFL spread/total strikes priced out of order: locked arbitrage, crossed-mid inversions and wide books worth making a market in, with both tickers and books, gross edge, volume and tier. Free, no key; Pro adds the resting orders, net-of-fee edge and quarter-Kelly size.

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• market_pulse

  The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). The composite and the regime call are free without a key, always, along with 2 category scores; one email returns 4 and Pro returns all six. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off". (NFL edges moved to the dedicated nfl_edge tool.)

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• nfl_edge

  Where the PredictionMarketsPicks NFL model disagrees with live Kalshi prices — the actionable edge across every NFL market: game moneylines this week, season win-total futures, MVP, and championship (playoff / conference / Super Bowl) odds. Returns model probability, Kalshi price, edge in percentage points, and the side, biggest edges first. Pro key required. Use for "which NFL games are mispriced on Kalshi", "NFL win total edges", "NFL MVP value", "Super Bowl odds edge", "NFL prediction market picks". Pass tickers[] to check specific Kalshi markets — e.g. paste your Kalshi Pro screener watchlist (applies to the futures / mvp / championship markets, which are ticker-addressable).

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• nfl_ladder

  Use for "where does the model disagree with Kalshi on the Rams spread" and "biggest ladder gaps this week". Every NFL strike ladder — spreads, season win totals, player props — with Kalshi's price at each strike beside our distribution and a SHAPE / LOCATION / PRICED / PARTIAL verdict. Our number is published only between 30% and 70%. Free, no key.

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• nfl_power_ratings

  The PredictionMarketsPicks NFL power ratings — PWR for all 32 teams: points per game above an average team on a neutral field, where PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. Includes each team's rank and tier. Free, no key. Use for "best NFL teams by power rating", "NFL power rankings 2026", "is Baltimore overrated", "how good is Kansas City", "NFL team ratings".

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• nfl_prop_board

  Use for "where is the best price on <player> receiving yards" and "is Kalshi cheaper than the books". Every Kalshi NFL prop strike this week beside the book consensus, DraftKings, FanDuel and BetRivers lines and exchange quotes: the gap in cents and the best price per side (Kalshi net of fee). Filter by team, game, player or stat. Free, no key.

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• nfl_prop_edge

  NFL player-prop edges — the PredictionMarketsPicks projection vs the Kalshi prop line for passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and anytime touchdown. Returns the model projection, model probability, Kalshi price, edge, and side. Live in-season (opens NFL Week 1). Pro key required. Use for "NFL player prop edges", "best NFL props today", "passing yards over under", "receiving yards prop value".

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• nfl_win_probability

  Turn an NFL point spread and game total into win probability, projected score, cover probability, and over/under probability — using the PredictionMarketsPicks scoring-margin model. Provide the spread (home-favored = negative, e.g. -6.5) and optional total, OR two team abbreviations to auto-derive the spread from the power ratings. Free, no key. Use for "NFL win probability from the spread", "what does a -7 spread mean", "who wins Chiefs vs 49ers", "NFL score prediction".

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• nhl_edge

  Use for "NHL predictions tonight" and "Stanley Cup odds". Tonight's NHL games on Kalshi — moneyline, puck line, totals, period markets — as Market · Model · Fair, starting goalies checked first. market=goals: anytime and first-goal contracts; market=futures: Cup, conference and division markets on Kalshi and Polymarket (international book) vs a 10,000-season sim. Free.

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• perp_liquidation

  Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.

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• perps_board

  Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one. Free, no key.

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• player_outlook

  A single player's 2026 fantasy outlook (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR): projected points and per-game, floor/ceiling range, boom/bust odds, consensus ADP and draft round, our positional rank, and whether the model tags him a SLEEPER or a BUST vs the market, with a one-line thesis. Free, no key. Use for "is <player> a sleeper", "<player> fantasy outlook 2026", "should I draft <player>", "<player> projection".

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• race_odds

  Use for "who wins the Kansas Senate race" and "Michigan governor odds". Live Kalshi odds for one 2026 Senate, governor or competitive House race, by state, code, slug or district ("TX-34"): every leg's price, volume and link, the seat holder and rating, forecaster bands, and the race page. Prices are never estimated. Free, no key.

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• scan_mispricings

  Scan Polymarket contracts for mispricings against the PMP model (a probability swarm). Returns each market where the model disagrees with the price, the direction to take, the edge in percentage points, and quarter-Kelly sizing, sorted by absolute edge. Pro key required. Use for "where is the edge today", "mispriced markets", "what should I trade".

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• senate_map

  Use for "2026 Senate map" and "which Senate seats are toss-ups". Every 2026 Senate seat: holder and role, structure rating, forecaster bands where tracked, and the live Kalshi price (Democrat win probability where provable), closest race first, with a page URL per seat. Prices are never estimated — an unpriced seat returns null. Free, no key.

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• sleepers_and_busts

  The biggest gaps between the PredictionMarketsPicks model and consensus ADP for 2026 (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR): SLEEPERS the model ranks well above their draft cost, and BUSTS it ranks below. Filter by position or draft round. Free without a key (a capped slice of each). One email unlocks more of each; Pro unlocks the full board. Use for "fantasy sleepers 2026", "draft busts to avoid", "undervalued players", "overrated fantasy players", "late-round sleepers".

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• weather_board

  Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only. Free, no key.

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• who_do_i_draft

  Recommend the single best player to draft right now given the roster already on the user's team and their pick number, weighing positional need against the best value available (2026, any scoring format). The pick itself is always free, no key. One email adds alternatives; Pro adds the full reasoning. Prefer this mid-draft when the user asks "who should I take", "who do I draft", "what do I need". Input: roster (names on their team), pick_number. Returns one pick + a one-line reason.

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