get_luck_test

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The corpus-level 'could this record be luck?' significance test, computed AGAINST the record: 92 graded calls clustered into 68 independent events (correlated calls share one event), strict scoring (one NEAR fails the whole event), luck-prior floored at a coin flip per event. Returns the exact binomial tail, the BREAK-EVEN floor (what a skeptic must grant per event to call it luck), the sensitivity band, the published clusters + failed events, the sittings exhibit (every 2+-call seal date — complete enumeration, 23/23), the miss anatomy (all 4 misses electoral, never a miss at >=0.90), and the PRE-STATED falsification conditions. Caveats ship in the same object — quote them with the numbers. Measures improbability-of-luck, never calibration skill (the aggregate Brier's base-rate tie stays disclosed).