valuation_probability

io.github.simonmak-ascent/startup-valuation · Verify this server

Compute expected value and probability-weighted outcomes for startup scenarios: discrete E[X], joint probability of sequential events, probability-weighted value, VC portfolio expected return, Poisson event probability, and continuous E[X] over a range. Method selects the formula. Use for probability-weighted central estimates; for named bull/base/bear tables or option pricing use valuation_advanced, and to discount cash flows use valuation_time_value. Parameters apply per method: expected_value_discrete and probability_weighted need outcomes + probabilities; portfolio_return needs weights + returns; poisson needs mean_events + k; expected_value_continuous needs lower + upper. outcomes and probabilities must be equal length, and the probabilities should sum to 1. Routing: use valuation_advanced method 'scenario_analysis' for named bull/base/bear scenario tables, and its black_scholes/binomial methods for option pricing; use this tool for arbitrary outcome lists and probability-weighted central estimates. Only method is required; all other parameters are method-dependent, so supply those the selected method names and omit the rest (defaults apply where defined). Rate and decimal inputs are fractions (0.10 = 10%); probability and weight lists are in [0,1] and sum to 1. Returns value, method, inputs, assumptions, chapter, formula_number and calculation steps; pure arithmetic — no I/O and no external calls — rounded to 2 decimals, with no auth or rate limits. An unknown method, or a missing method-required parameter, returns an error instead of a value.