compare_prob

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Judge an external probability (e.g. a Polymarket/Kalshi price) against our sharp fair line — ONE call. Resolves the fixture, de-vigs the sharp book to a fair probability (power de-vig for 3-way 1x2), and reports the edge ``fair_prob − external_prob`` in percentage points, the ROI, and a verdict (good / marginal / no_edge). DETECTION ONLY: InferSports never ingests prediction-market data, sizes a stake, or picks — it gives you the sharp reference and the gap; the call is yours. Args: query: natural-language fixture, e.g. "France vs Argentina" or a single team. external_prob: the external implied probability for ``outcome``, in (0,1). Pre-net it for the venue's fee/spread (e.g. a Polymarket YES ask of 0.55 → 0.55). market_type: "1x2" (default; the prediction-market-comparable moneyline), "asian_handicap" (only ±0.5 maps cleanly to a binary), or "totals". period: "full_time" (default) or "half_time". outcome: which leg the probability is for — home/draw/away (1x2), home/away (AH), over/under. external_label: optional source label echoed back, e.g. "polymarket" | "kalshi". sport: optional filter — "football" or "basketball". date: optional UTC date "YYYY-MM-DD" to disambiguate same-name fixtures. Read ``caveats`` before acting: a 1x2 fair is regulation 90-min (a prediction market that includes extra time / "to advance" is a different market); quarter/integer AH carries push mass. On an ambiguous query ``status`` is "ambiguous" — do not guess. ``status`` is "no_line" when no sharp fair is available to judge against.