long_horizon_stress

io.github.fnobbe/crashtestyourstrategy · Verify this server

Distribution of multi-year wealth paths for a savings plan (monthly_contribution) or a withdrawal plan (monthly_withdrawal, inflation-indexed by default) on a portfolio from the substrate universe. Multi-year paths chain ~2y model blocks (block-bootstrap, disclosed); long-run drift is RE-ANCHORED to stated capital-market assumptions (overridable via long_run_drift; the substrate's raw stress drift would compound a structural bear universe — both are echoed in the output) while the model's path shape (vol, clustering, correlations, hedge-breaks) is kept. Costs are ON by default. Returns terminal-wealth quantiles (nominal + real), ruin/shortfall probabilities, a sequence-of-returns diagnosis (same plan, bad vs good first two years), and a drift-sensitivity block (assumptions − 2pp). Amounts in the caller's currency unit. Descriptive, not advisory — no rate, allocation, or product is recommended.