get_outcome_fair_value
shallowio.github.RavioleLabs/predmcp · Verify this server
Options/vol-implied fair value for a HIP-4 binary/range/touch PRICE market ("<asset> above $X at time T?"). Returns the risk-neutral probability the market resolves YES, and — if you pass market_yes_price — the signed edge in probability points and a YES cheap/rich/fair verdict. BTC/ETH price off the live Deribit IV smile (interpolated to strike + DTE); ANY other asset falls back to Hyperliquid 30d realized vol. iv_source labels which was used (smile/term_interp/skew_adj/atm/realized_vol). The touch case uses the correct drifted first-passage formula. Approximations are listed in caveats.
1 trials · measured 8 days ago
get_outcome_fair_value scores 100.0/100 on Vouch's measured behaviour index, from 1 real invocation trials against io.github.RavioleLabs/predmcp, measured 25 Aug 2026 under methodology v0.2.0. Every measured component scored 100.
Component breakdown
| Component | Weight | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Reliability | 35% | not applicable |
| Schema integrity | 25% | 100.0 |
| Failure behaviour | 15% | not applicable |
| Latency | 15% | not applicable |
| Concurrency | 10% | not applicable |
Tool details
- Transport
- remote
- Credential class
- gated
- Input schema
- not declared
- Output schema
- not declared
- Side-effect classification
- unclassified
Score history
| Day | Score | Tier | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 100.0 | shallow | v0.2.0 |
Probe evidence
| Probe | Outcomes |
|---|---|
| schema_integrity | pass: 1 |
Raw request/response logs are not archived yet — the outcome counts above are drawn directly from every recorded trial.
Embed this score
Available for every tool, scored or not — not a verification perk. Always links back to this page.
[](https://vouch.tools/tools/b3eae7b7-4103-47fe-8dc3-55ca52e92be6)