generate_priors

io.github.livevariant/livevariant · Verify this server

Takes YOUR estimate of how each variant will perform and converts it into the prior the model starts from, so a test does not spend its first visitors rediscovering what you already suspect. You supply the guess; this does the arithmetic and the capping. That capping is the point: a prior is expressed as pseudo-observations, and it is deliberately held weak enough that real data overrides it quickly. The response says exactly how many real visitors per variant it takes to wash your guess out, so you can judge whether you have been too confident. Being wrong here costs a little early traffic, not the test. Priors are outside the identity hash, so the test keeps its id, its URLs and any history it already has. Pass `when` to make the belief hold for ONE segment only ("image B is the one for the blue segment"). Without it the belief is about every visitor, which is a different and much stronger claim.