get_historical_analogs

com.coco-pier/fx-context · Verify this server

Find and return individual historical macroeconomic releases whose surprise profiles are most similar to a selected target event. Use this CASE-RETRIEVAL tool when the user wants to identify, rank, inspect, or compare specific historical analog events. It returns the matched events themselves, including event identity, similarity characteristics, surprise profile, and each event's observed post-release reaction. Supported event types: US_CPI and US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS across EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. US_PCE is recognized but not yet publicly available: the historical PCE calibration corpus currently has too few usable periods, and a request for US_PCE returns a structured INSUFFICIENT_HISTORICAL_CALIBRATION error (with usable/required event counts) instead of analog results until the corpus grows. Similarity methodology is event-specific: US_CPI uses headline/core surprise distance; US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS uses target-relative robust scale normalization (nfp-historical-analog-v1); US_PCE (once activated) uses the same raw surprise -distance approach as US_CPI (pce-historical-analog-v1). Do NOT use this tool when the user's primary question is about aggregate behavior across the analog sample; use get_historical_reaction_context instead. The results are historical observations only and do not predict future price direction or provide trading recommendations.