base_rate

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Use when someone asks what usually happens after a spike like the one an asset shows today, or whether moves like it tend to fade. What historically happened after a move like this asset's current one. Uses 3,213 crypto attention spikes on 175 coins since 2022, found with the live score's formula, matched on direction, size of move and how many other coins are unusual right now: the median, spread and share of cases that beat Bitcoin over 1, 7 and 30 days, next to what an ordinary day did. A base rate, not a forecast or advice. On days with a score of 70 or more. Stocks read a separate study measured against SPY and get a rate only where one of its groups holds; today none does, so stocks return null with the study's reason. Returns base_rate null with a reason for quieter days, and groups that are too small, dominated by one date, or not distinguishable from an ordinary day.