close_curve
shallowfinance.maddog/mcp · Verify this server
The full probability curve of where today's US regular session closes: for any set of price levels, the probability that the session close prints above each one. Distances are measured in units of today's own volatility (ATR of the first 90 minutes) against 1,906 historical sessions grouped by day type. Validated against real-money prediction-market prices: on tail levels (>=0.5% from spot) this curve's log-loss beat Polymarket's own 'SPY closes above $K' ladder quotes in two independent windows; near the money the market was MORE accurate — use this for shape and tails, not direction. Available from 90 minutes into the day session. Same key and quota as price_action_read. Historical frequencies, not forecasts.
1 trials · measured 2 days ago
close_curve scores 100.0/100 on Vouch's measured behaviour index, from 1 real invocation trials against finance.maddog/mcp, measured 31 Aug 2026 under methodology v0.2.0. Every measured component scored 100.
Component breakdown
| Component | Weight | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Reliability | 35% | not applicable |
| Schema integrity | 25% | 100.0 |
| Failure behaviour | 15% | not applicable |
| Latency | 15% | not applicable |
| Concurrency | 10% | not applicable |
Tool details
- Transport
- remote
- Credential class
- self-provisionable
- Input schema
- not declared
- Output schema
- not declared
- Side-effect classification
- unclassified
Score history
| Day | Score | Tier | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 100.0 | shallow | v0.2.0 |
Probe evidence
| Probe | Outcomes |
|---|---|
| schema_integrity | pass: 1 |
Raw request/response logs are not archived yet — the outcome counts above are drawn directly from every recorded trial.
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