workflow.run_prediction_market_edge
shallowio.github.SKalinin909/tradingcalc · Verify this server
Compares your own probability estimate for an event against a prediction market's price (manual entry or a live Kalshi ticker) and sizes a bet using fractional Kelly criterion bet sizing (default: quarter-Kelly, a standard conservative haircut on full Kelly, stated explicitly as a convention). Returns zero recommended stake whenever your probability doesn't exceed the market's price: no edge, no bet. Use when user asks "does this bet have edge?" or "how much should I stake given my probability estimate vs the market's?". Returns: edgePct, evPerDollarStaked, fullKellyFraction, cappedKellyFraction, recommendedStakeUsd, verdict (skip_this_one/think_twice/worth_the_risk/take_it).
1 trials · measured 28 days ago
workflow.run_prediction_market_edge scores 100.0/100 on Vouch's measured behaviour index, from 1 real invocation trials against io.github.SKalinin909/tradingcalc, measured 23 Sept 2026 under methodology v0.2.0. Every measured component scored 100.
Component breakdown
| Component | Weight | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Reliability | 35% | not applicable |
| Schema integrity | 25% | 100.0 |
| Failure behaviour | 15% | not applicable |
| Latency | 15% | not applicable |
| Concurrency | 10% | not applicable |
Tool details
- Transport
- remote
- Credential class
- self-provisionable
- Category
- Finance & compliance
- Input schema
- not declared
- Output schema
- not declared
- Side-effect classification
- unclassified
Score history
| Day | Score | Tier | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | 100.0 | shallow | v0.2.0 |
Probe evidence
| Probe | Outcomes |
|---|---|
| schema_integrity | pass: 1 |
Raw request/response logs are not archived yet — the outcome counts above are drawn directly from every recorded trial.
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