get_confidence

fr.solanometeo/solano · Verify this server

How much the forecast can be trusted at this point, hour by hour, from ensemble spread — Solano's own indicator, not a raw model output. Each deterministic model is compared against the members of ITS OWN reference ensemble (GFS→GEFS, ECMWF IFS→ECMWF-ENS, ICON→ICON-EPS), never against a mixed pool: the systematic offset between forecasting centres would otherwise be charged to the model as if it were uncertainty. The percentage blends wind (60%), rain intensity class (25%) and pressure (15%). High means the scenarios converge, so the forecast is solid; low means they diverge and the forecast should be treated as uncertain. Use this when asked "is this forecast reliable?", "will it hold?", or before committing to a passage plan. Returned per day: mean and minimum confidence, plus the per-variable breakdown at the least confident hour.