get_historical_reaction_context

com.coco-pier/fx-context · Verify this server

Summarize the aggregate post-event reaction pattern across historical macroeconomic events similar to a selected target release. Use this AGGREGATE-PATTERN tool when the user wants to understand what the historical analog sample collectively showed rather than inspect individual analog events. It summarizes historical outcomes using statistics and behavioral patterns across standardized post-event windows (M5, M15, H1, H4, H24) such as mean, median, quantiles, directional consistency, reaction-path classification (e.g. IMMEDIATE_CONTINUATION, INITIAL_REVERSAL, FADE, DELAYED_REACTION), persistence, and sample-size-based confidence. Supported event types: US_CPI and US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS across EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. Similarity methodology is event-specific: US_CPI uses headline/core surprise distance; US_NONFARM_PAYROLLS uses target-relative robust scale normalization (nfp-historical-analog-v1). Do NOT use this tool when the user's primary goal is to identify, rank, enumerate, or inspect specific historical analog events. For individual historical cases, use get_historical_analogs. When the user asks for both specific cases and collective pattern analysis, invoke both tools. The results are deterministic empirical observations only and do not predict future prices or provide trading recommendations.