monte_carlo_p50_p80

io.github.danafitkowski/cpp-cpm-engine · Verify this server

Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis — P10/P50/P80/P90 completion-date forecast for a Primavera P6 schedule. Implements an AACE-style quantitative SRA (the same math as CPP's browser Tool_11 Portfolio Risk Engine, scripted Python counterpart). For each iteration, every activity duration is sampled from the chosen distribution (Triangular, BetaPERT, Uniform, Lognormal, etc.) parameterized by % of baseline duration; CPM re-runs and the project finish date is recorded. After all iterations, P10/P50/P80/P90 completion dates and a sensitivity tornado (per-activity correlation to project finish) are reported. Use this tool when you need probabilistic completion forecasts or a tornado/sensitivity ranking. For the QRAMM-aligned five-level maturity badge (AACE 122R-22) on the result, pipe the response into ``qramm_maturity``. Args: xer_path: server-side path to the schedule XER. xer_content: full text of the schedule XER (alternative for hosted/remote use). Supply EXACTLY ONE of path/content. iterations: number of MC iterations (default 5000). distribution: 'Triangular', 'BetaPERT', 'Uniform', 'Lognormal' (case-insensitive — passed through). optimistic_pct, most_likely_pct, pessimistic_pct: % of baseline duration for the distribution params (defaults: 85 / 100 / 120). seed: optional fixed seed for reproducibility (0 = system entropy = non-reproducible). output_dir: optional output dir; tempdir if "". Returns: Full SRA result dict, key paths: - 'baseline.percentiles': lowercase p-keys {'p10','p25','p50','p75','p80','p85','p90','p95'}, each {'day', 'date'}. NOTE: keys are lowercase — read result['baseline']['percentiles']['p80'], not 'P80'. - 'baseline.config': sim params used - 'baseline.sensitivity': per-activity tornado rows - 'risk_register_simulation.percentiles' (only when a risk_register is supplied): SAME lowercase convention, {'p10','p50','p80','p90'} each {'day', 'date'}. - 'project_name', 'data_date', ... - HTML / DOCX paths if outputs emitted