get_forecast

io.github.quantustik/mcp · Verify this server

Get quantum probability forecasts across multiple time horizons for a ticker. Delivers calibrated probability distributions from the Feynman path-integral model: prob_up, expected growth %, downside %, and 90% confidence interval (ci_low / ci_high). Backtest CI90 calibration is included where available. Each measured horizon (3mo / 6mo / 1y) carries a `calibration` block, and that block deliberately contains NO coverage figure for the ticker: `ci90_empirical_coverage` is always null. BE HONEST WITH USERS — do not fill that gap. Band calibration is measured across a twenty-name universe at a given forecast start date, so no cell of the published record is a property of one symbol, and `calibration_status` is a statement about what we publish (`varies-by-start-date`, `not-published`, `not-backtested`), never a grade for this ticker. The one number in the block, `universe_ci90_range_pct`, is the lowest and highest coverage observed ACROSS forecast start dates for the whole universe — quote it as the universe's range and say what it is, never as this ticker's accuracy, and never average it. Each row behind that range already averages twenty names, so per-ticker dispersion is wider still. 1mo is not measured and carries no block. Read the quantustik://calibration resource for the per-start-date table, its provenance and its worst individual windows. Horizons available: 1mo (always), 3mo, 6mo, 1y (availability may vary by entitlement tier; public API always returns at least 1mo). The model computes amplitude integrals over all simulated price paths to capture non-linear shifts in market conditions. Args: ticker: Stock ticker symbol (e.g. "AAPL"). Case-insensitive. horizon: Optional single horizon to return ("1mo", "3mo", "6mo", "1y"). If omitted, all available horizons are returned. Returns a dict with horizons keyed by label and disclaimer embedded in the payload.