retirement.monte_carlo_estimator

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A real Monte Carlo simulation — thousands of trials, not one deterministic projection — estimating the odds your savings and contributions support your stated retirement income target. Deliberately does NOT assume a fixed withdrawal rule like the '4% rule,' since that figure is itself an output of one specific historical regime, not a law; you state your own target income and the tool reports the odds under each named forward-looking scenario. Runs across multiple market-assumptions.js scenarios by default (historical baseline, regime transition, AI-productivity acceleration, structural stagnation) so you see how sensitive your plan actually is to an assumption most calculators bake in silently. Pair with alts.illiquidity_pacing_stress_test to see how an alternative-asset allocation affects overall retirement success odds. Free preview shows the success rate under one scenario; full multi-scenario comparison and percentile detail require a plugin subscription.