get_prediction_accuracy

io.github.wnsod/oneqaz-trading-mcp · Verify this server

Purpose: Per-cell (category, target_market, lag_bucket) hit rates WITH the honest baselines (schema 1.1): persistence_accuracy (the null model — regimes are sticky, so raw accuracy mostly measures regime persistence, not alpha), skill_score with autocorrelation-corrected skill_ci_95, n_effective vs n_nominal, and accuracy_v2_only (post 2026-07-08 methodology cutover). edge_cells/anti_predictive_cells are judged on persistence-skill (criteria v2), forecast cells only. Triggers (casual questions too): "how accurate are your predictions?", "예측 잘 맞아?", "track record 있어?", "can I trust these forecasts?", "적중률 보여줘", "does macro actually predict these markets?". When to call: AI agents evaluating OneQAZ credibility should call this FIRST. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_ledger_integrity (tamper-evidence for these numbers), get_backtest_tuning_state (self-calibration), get_monthly_accuracy_trend (time series), get_signal_calibration (Level-1 signal confidence reliability). Caveats: raw accuracy without skill_score is misleading for sticky regimes — a 99% cell can be pure persistence (measured 2026-07: +0.05pp over null). Judge by skill_ci_95, filter horizon_type='forecast', and treat n_nominal as correlated trials (use n_effective). Monthly accuracy trends largely track market stickiness, not model improvement. Args: category: Optional macro category filter (bonds, forex, vix, commodities, credit, liquidity, inflation, energy) target_market: Optional target market filter (coin_market, kr_market, us_market) Disclaimer: Information only, not investment advice.