arena_dip_scenario

io.github.Schoasch/backtesting-arena · Verify this server

Where would I add on a dip, and when is the thesis wrong? Frame a dip/accumulation thesis WITHOUT a recommendation. Given an asset (BTC/ETH/SOL), a named cycle-state preset and a thesis horizon, returns: (1) a tranche LADDER anchored to STRUCTURAL marks (200-week MA, support clusters) below spot — not calendar-DCA, not a price forecast; (2) the cited historical base rate from the analog engine (what forward returns followed comparable states, with episodes_matched and small-n warnings); (3) the explicit lump-sum-vs-tranche tradeoff (laddering buys lower timing variance, NOT higher expected value). Requires an invalidation point (mandatory: at what scenario is the thesis wrong). Composes the historical-analog + key-levels tools. This structural framing is MCP-only; a related (different-method, EV/Kelly) interactive tool is at https://tradingstrategies.work/analyse/dip-decision. [API Pro tier]