io.github.encodi/simulate-monte-carlo

repo:https://github.com/encodi/simulate-monte-carlo

Real Monte Carlo simulation of a compound event/conditional probability. Paid via x402.

transport:: remote
credential class:: self-provisionable
repo:: https://github.com/encodi/simulate-monte-carlo

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Tools

simulate_monte_carlo
Actually draws random samples from real distributions and counts outcomes, instead of a model guess about a probability. Declare named random variables (uniform, normal, bernoulli, binomial, poisson, exponential, discrete), an "event" boolean expression over those variable names (e.g. "a > 0.5 && b == 1"), and an optional "condition" expression to estimate a conditional probability P(event | condition) by rejection sampling. Event/condition expressions are parsed and evaluated by a small built-in interpreter (arithmetic, comparisons, &&/||/!, min/max/abs) — no arbitrary code execution. Returns the estimated probability, a 95% confidence interval, and the seed used (pass the same seed back to reproduce the exact result). Costs $0.03 USDC (Base) per call.
shallow

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