com.modernmustardseed/dry-run

Tools

• list_presets

  List the six built-in business presets (excavation and septic, plumbing and drain, heating and cooling, landscaping and snow, roofing, and a general small services business) with every default input in the exact field names a simulation accepts, and the revenue, costs and profit each makes at its own averages. Static reference: no network access.

  shallow
• rank_levers

  Test nine single changes a small business owner can make and rank them by how much each lowers the chance of running short of money in the next 52 weeks, with the change in year-end money as a tiebreak. The levers: take a third up front, take 15 days off payment terms, raise prices 5 percent, take a fifth less owner draw for six months, cut overhead 10 percent, raise the credit line by half, run one crew lighter, add a crew, and buy three more enquiries a week. Each lever and the baseline run 3,000 simulated years with the same seed, so the difference is the lever and not the luck. Takes the same business description as a cash year simulation: a preset plus any overridden inputs. Pure arithmetic: no network access, nothing stored.

  shallow
• simulate_cash_year

  Simulate the next 52 weeks of a small services business 10,000 times (Monte Carlo) and report the chance it runs short of money, the week that is most likely to happen, reachable money (bank balance plus unused credit) week by week at the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile, the drivers that separated the futures that ran short from the ones that survived, and the profit the business makes at its own averages. Start from a trade preset (excavation, plumbing, hvac, landscaping, roofing, or general) and override any input: cash, credit line, money owed to the business, work already sold, crews and their weekly cost, overhead, owner draw, monthly bills, enquiries, close rate, seasonality, job types with value, materials, deposit and payment terms, bad debt, tax, and random setbacks. Money is in dollars and rates are fractions (0.3 is 30 percent). The same inputs and seed always return the same answer. Pure arithmetic: no network access, nothing stored.

  shallow

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