io.github.beepboop2025/seiche

Tools

• crypto_stress_record

  Labelled crypto stress episodes (Black Thursday 2020, Terra, FTX, the SVB/USDC weekend, the Oct-2025 liquidation cascade, the Ethena unwind) replayed with causal truncation but final/current-vintage inputs against the dollar-funding board. External wrecks show transmission; crypto-native wrecks show the board correctly staying quiet. Use for any 'does TradFi funding stress reach crypto' question, grounded in the record.

  shallow
• data_health

  Freshness, provenance, and fault status for every underlying series (FRED, NY Fed, OFR, Treasury). Call this to confirm the board is current before relying on a reading.

  shallow
• funding_stress_now

  The live money-market funding-stress reading: a 0-100 composite index, the regime (CALM/EROSION/STRAIN/STRESS), per-component decomposition, the market-stress 'Tell', and any data faults. Ask this whenever an analysis touches US dollar funding, repo, reserves, the Fed's balance sheet, or liquidity conditions.

  shallow
• fx_materials_passage

  The live upstream FX and physical-material pressure read versus funding already priced in SOFR and commercial paper, with the Passage's discovery/holdout ledger, de-clustered analogs, dollar-system context and settlement scenarios. Use for currency weakness, commodity working capital, FX settlement, or whether trade-flow cash pressure is reaching money markets. Context only; an earned link is stable association, not causation.

  shallow
• historical_analogs

  The historical days most similar to today's funding conditions, and how often those analogs led to a stress event, plus a novelty flag for whether today has any close precedent. Use to ground a 'what usually happens from here' question in real history.

  shallow
• institutional_flows

  Hedge-fund / pension / sovereign positioning nowcast from public prints: the Treasury basis-trade size proxy (CFTC leveraged-fund net short, with a funding-fragility flag), asset-manager duration demand, foreign-official custody flows (H.4.1), a mixed-frequency fused positioning index with uncertainty bands, and how self-exciting stress events currently are (Hawkes branching ratio). Weekly cadence, point-in-time. Ask this when a question involves hedge fund leverage, the basis trade, pension duration bids, or sovereigns buying/selling Treasuries. Built from free public data.

  shallow
• latest_article

  The exact full-text Seiche editorial published today: current funding analysis when the evidence moved, or a clearly labelled historical replay on a quiet day. Returns the canonical headline, dek, Markdown, evidence clock, generation mode and passing publication receipt. Use this for 'what did Seiche write today?' and quote it without regenerating facts.

  shallow
• money_market_context

  Granular, descriptive USD money-market context from the already assembled desk: policy corridor and overnight spreads; SOFR/TGCR/BGCR distributions and tails; repo-segment rates and volumes; CP-Treasury spreads; bills and cash curve; liquidity buffers and Fed facilities; and MMF repo plumbing. Use optional `section` to request a compact summary, one named desk section, sources, methodology, or all context. Returns exact-date alignment, native-cadence changes, empirical own-history statistics, freshness, coverage, formulas, sources, and caveats as applicable. Chart history is always omitted. Reads only an already completed cached or persisted snapshot; it never triggers collection or engine recomputation, while freshness is re-evaluated at response time. Context only: no causal, predictive, probability, or trade claim.

  shallow
• oil_funding_context

  Observed WTI/Brent, commercial-paper and SOFR−IORB evidence; Ballast's WTI/Henry Hub CFTC positioning, gross mark-displacement proxy, paying-side concentration and EIA inventory ledger; live Cushing stocks and the Brent−WTI spread kept separate from dated capacity, benchmark and chokepoint references; the change-on-change oil/CP association; plus explicitly scenario-only cargo-credit, margin and India cash arithmetic. Use when a question asks how oil or energy futures can transmit cash pressure into dollar funding. Ballast is not an observed margin call; dated structure is not live transit data; nothing here is a forecast, trade signal, or Seiche composite input.

  shallow
• proof_backtest

  The backtest scoreboard, stated honestly: recall and precision with 95% confidence intervals over labelled funding events, an orthogonal robustness test, every named episode (hits and misses), and the caveats. Use to judge how much to trust the readings.

  shallow
• world_markets_context

  Unified, chartless context for broad financial-market questions. It projects only completed/public state into money_markets, forex, macro-capital transmission, China macro evidence, official references, methodology, or a compact summary. Every response carries snapshot/as-of clocks, canonical Seiche citation URLs, and explicit observed, derived, structural, restricted, and unavailable boundaries. The China structural catalog is unsigned; only status=restricted represents a verified Seiche owner-attested revision; both states keep NBS values, raw evidence, and history withheld. A separately operator-accepted economic_context may publish licensed World Bank WDI values with annual/structural freshness, distinct release, Palimpsest collection, and Seiche acceptance clocks. Those values are context only and never a live print, score, gauge, forecast, or signal. The sources selector is reference-only; use all when verified China context and its NBS source linkage must appear together. Coverage is curated and partial rather than exhaustive or uniformly live. It never triggers collection, repository history reads, or model fitting. Its named-field whitelist omits chart and history arrays for data minimization; that is not a per-record licensing audit. Capital coverage is limited to public positioning proxies, Treasury primary-market absorption, market stress, official liquidity and global dollar credit—not a security master, issuer-data service or consolidated tape. Use Undertow instead when the question is specifically about executable depth, liquidity-provider concentration, or position-sized exit cost.

  shallow

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