site.russianato/risk-ladder

name:site.russianato/risk-ladder

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

transport:: remote
credential class:: open

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Tools

get_changelog
Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
shallow
get_forecast_history
Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
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get_intelligence_assessments
Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
shallow
get_methodology
Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.
shallow
get_other_forecasts
Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.
shallow
get_overview
Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).
shallow
get_risk_ladder
Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
shallow
get_sources
The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
shallow

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